Fantasy Football 2023: Justin Jefferson and Safest Players to Draft No. 1

On Tuesday, NFL teams trimmed their rosters to 53 players. While there will be more roster shuffling in the coming days—as players are signed by new teams and moved on and off of practice squads—fantasy managers should now have a good idea of what teams are going to look like in 2023.

Now, it's time for those fantasy managers to make their own difficult roster decisions.

A lot goes into successfully navigating a fantasy draft, but one of the most critical goals is to avoid potential busts in the early rounds. There's nothing wrong with landing a good player in the first or second round, even if they aren't special. Using a first-round pick on a player who spends most of the season on the bench, however, can be disastrous.

We're here to examine the earliest stage of drafting, the No. 1 overall pick, and players who possess the potential to be special along with very minimal risk.

Injuries happen, so no player is truly ever "safe," but these are the safest possible options to target first in 2023.

According to FantasyPros, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is trending as the most popular top pick with an average draft position (ADP) of No. 1. However, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who has an ADP of No. 2, is going to go first overall in a lot of drafts, and for good reason.

McCaffrey is a star when healthy, but he's still a 27-year-old running back with a noteworthy injury history. He stayed on the field this past season but only appeared in 10 games between the previous two seasons.

Jefferson, meanwhile, is a 24-year-old wideout who has never missed a game and who has topped 1,400 receiving yards in each of his three seasons. He led the NFL with 128 catches and 1,809 yards in 2022. While the first-team All-Pro is due an extension, he hasn't even hinted at a holdout, and Minnesota is working to get him under contract.

"The Vikings are making an effort to get wide receiver Justin Jefferson signed before the season starts," Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated wrote. "Jefferson's kept a pretty low profile about this one, and talks, as far as I can tell, have gone fine."

Jefferson carries virtually no risk of busting in any given week, and given his recent history, he carries a low risk of missing significant time.

Cincinnati Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase isn't quite as safe as Jefferson. The 23-year-old missed time with a hip fracture in 2022, though that's less concerning than 30-year-old Cooper Kupp's 2022 hamstring issues.

Chase has a current ADP of No. 4, though he's worth targeting No. 1 if you believe he's poised to challenge Jefferson as the top wideout in football. His potential to do so could hinge on Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who is still recovering from a calf strain.

Burrow isn't, however, likely to miss much time early in the season, if any at all, and he and Chase have a remarkable rapport that dates back to their time together at LSU.

Every player carries at least a little injury risk, but Chase is going to produce every single time he's on the field. In his career, he's averaged 5.8 receptions, 86 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game.

This past season, Chase had no fewer than four receptions in a game. The one time he had less than 50 receiving yards, he also caught six passes and scored a touchdown.

Chase is about as consistent as it can get at the receiver position, especially in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, which makes him a fine choice for the top selection.

Running backs carry a bit more injury risk than receivers due to the physical nature of their position. However, managers should feel pretty good about taking a chance on Los Angeles Chargers dual-threat Austin Ekeler.

Unlike McCaffrey, Ekeler doesn't have a truly concerning injury history. He missed six games in 2020 with a hamstring ailment but has missed only one game over the past two seasons. Ekeler also doesn't subject himself to the physical rigors of a heavy running workload—he's never carried more than 206 times in a season.

Additionally, Ekeler is a "safe" fantasy prospect because of his PPR upside. He's caught 177 passes over the past two seasons and had at least two receptions in every single game in 2022. He had four or more receptions in 15 of 17 outings.

Ekeler finished the 2022 season with 107 receptions, 1,637 scrimmage yards and a league-high 18 combined touchdowns. His touchdown potential remains high, as L.A. doesn't have a touchdown vulture in its backfield—Ekeler scored 13 of the team's 15 rushing TDs in 2022.

An ADP of No. 3 reflects Ekeler's high floor, and managers pondering a running back at No. 1 overall should view him as just a little bit safer than McCaffrey.